A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
