Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
